US oil prices remain elevated as the Iran war moves into its third week and military operations continue to target core energy infrastructure. Analyst Patrick De Haan projects that US pump prices could reach $3.85 per gallon Monday, with $4 gasoline still a near-term possibility. Three weeks of sustained military operations have stripped significant supply from global oil markets, directly inflating costs for American consumers.
The current oil crisis was triggered by the US-Israel campaign against Iran, which launched on February 28 and has since expanded to include strikes on major energy infrastructure including Kharg Island. From below $3 per gallon before the conflict, the national gasoline average has climbed 23% to $3.70, a rapid escalation that has left many consumers struggling to adjust their budgets. Each new strike against energy infrastructure creates fresh upward pressure on oil prices.
Friday’s US attack on Kharg Island, the hub of Iran’s oil export operations, represents one of the most significant targeting of energy assets in the conflict to date. Iran’s concurrent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has removed approximately 20% of global daily oil supply from international markets. Brent crude ranged from $103 to $106 per barrel Monday, while US crude held near $94 following a brief $100 spike on Sunday.
The domestic impact is most visible in California, where pump averages have surpassed $5 per gallon and certain Los Angeles stations are charging above $8. Diesel prices for freight and commercial transport could rise to $5.15 per gallon across the country. The CEOs of Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips have all briefed White House officials on the deteriorating supply situation, with Exxon’s Darren Woods warning specifically about the destabilizing potential of speculative market activity.
US stocks started the week with modest gains, the S&P 500 rising approximately 1% as oil prices temporarily retreated. Oil company stocks have surged to record levels since the conflict began, creating a stark financial contrast with the millions of American consumers facing elevated pump prices. The energy market will remain in a state of elevated tension for as long as military operations and supply disruptions continue.